https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/ Daily notes on markets, technology, and the capital moving between them. en-us Sat, 12 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-12-ai-products-arrive-but-the-returns-still-have-to-show-up/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-12-ai-products-arrive-but-the-returns-still-have-to-show-up/ Meta has officially introduced its consumer-facing autonomous AI agent, complete with tiered subscription pricing and embedded commercial transaction rails. Sat, 12 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-11-inflation-is-back-in-charge-ai-demand-still-runs-ahead-of/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-11-inflation-is-back-in-charge-ai-demand-still-runs-ahead-of/ Artificial intelligence hardware providers cannot expand data center capacity fast enough to satisfy enterprise appetite, yet escalating commodity inflation... Fri, 11 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-10-ai-spending-is-huge-rates-are-pushing-back/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-10-ai-spending-is-huge-rates-are-pushing-back/ Oracle reported booking more than $30 billion in artificial intelligence cloud contracts in a single quarter, pushing its total remaining performance... Thu, 10 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-09-oil-tops-100-apple-folds-the-iphone/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-09-oil-tops-100-apple-folds-the-iphone/ Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since July as military conflict disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical... Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-07-oil-near-97-puts-rate-hikes-back-on-the-table/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-07-oil-near-97-puts-rate-hikes-back-on-the-table/ Brent crude has climbed to a six-week high near $97 per barrel, driving financial markets to price a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at the... Mon, 07 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-06-higher-rates-are-starting-to-bite/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-06-higher-rates-are-starting-to-bite/ McDonald's trades near $300 per share with a modest 2% dividend yield, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note offers a risk-free return of 4.77%. Sun, 06 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-05-strong-jobs-and-expensive-oil-complicate-the-fed/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-05-strong-jobs-and-expensive-oil-complicate-the-fed/ U.S. employers added 162,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in August, nearly tripling consensus expectations of approximately 55,000 while prior months were revised... Sat, 05 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-04-ai-growth-meets-a-tougher-rate-backdrop/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-04-ai-growth-meets-a-tougher-rate-backdrop/ Broadcom's quarterly AI semiconductor revenue surged 221% to $16.7 billion, accompanied by long-term management projections that envision shipping $350 billion... Fri, 04 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-03-broadcom-s-ai-boom-meets-its-hardest-question/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-03-broadcom-s-ai-boom-meets-its-hardest-question/ Broadcom reported that its artificial intelligence semiconductor revenue surged 221% year over year, generating record operating profits. Yet despite the... Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-02-ai-is-pulling-chip-demand-forward/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-02-ai-is-pulling-chip-demand-forward/ Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company now expects to purchase nearly double the volume of advanced chipmaking equipment compared to its initial budget... Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-01-oil-above-90-changes-the-rate-debate/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-09-01-oil-above-90-changes-the-rate-debate/ Crude oil closed firmly above $90 per barrel, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 4.80%, and interest rate markets now reflect a two-thirds probability of... Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-31-oil-above-90-ai-paper-profits-and-a-harder-fed-decision/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-31-oil-above-90-ai-paper-profits-and-a-harder-fed-decision/ Crude oil has advanced firmly above $90 per barrel, pushing financial prediction markets to price a 60% to 66% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate... Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-30-ai-growth-is-running-into-physical-limits/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-30-ai-growth-is-running-into-physical-limits/ Industry consensus estimates project that approximately 15 gigawatts of artificial intelligence computing silicon manufactured in 2027 cannot actually be... Sun, 30 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-29-ai-spending-is-surging-and-rates-are-pushing-back/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-29-ai-spending-is-surging-and-rates-are-pushing-back/ Business capital expenditures are expanding at their fastest pace since 2021, with nearly half of all newly allocated corporate investment directly tied to the... Sat, 29 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-28-ai-growth-is-strong-the-bill-keeps-growing/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-28-ai-growth-is-strong-the-bill-keeps-growing/ Nvidia expanded its market valuation by roughly $453 billion in a single trading day, setting a new record for the largest one-day capitalization surge in U.S... Fri, 28 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-27-nvidia-s-huge-day-comes-with-a-memory-warning/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-27-nvidia-s-huge-day-comes-with-a-memory-warning/ Nvidia added $442 billion in market capitalization in a single trading session, marking the second-largest one-day equity gain in financial history as shares... Thu, 27 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-26-nvidia-s-growth-is-huge-so-is-the-competition/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-26-nvidia-s-growth-is-huge-so-is-the-competition/ Nvidia's quarterly revenue more than doubled year over year, reaching extraordinary financial heights. At the exact same time, reports emerged that OpenAI's... Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-25-debt-tariffs-and-ai-face-a-big-test/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-25-debt-tariffs-and-ai-face-a-big-test/ Gold has climbed for five consecutive weeks, Bitcoin touched $80,000, and total U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion as investors seek protection against... Tue, 25 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-24-iren-s-4-billion-execution-test/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-24-iren-s-4-billion-execution-test/ IREN currently generates $33.6 million in quarterly AI Cloud revenue, yet management has established an ambitious target to exceed $4 billion in annualized run... Mon, 24 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-23-ai-is-running-into-the-physical-world/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-23-ai-is-running-into-the-physical-world/ AI customers want roughly 50% more memory than Micron can commit. Sun, 23 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-22-ai-infrastructure-meets-the-cost-of-capital/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-22-ai-infrastructure-meets-the-cost-of-capital/ The first production Vera Rubin server racks have arrived at Microsoft data centers, marking the physical commencement of Nvidia's next-generation computing... Sat, 22 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-21-ai-is-becoming-a-test-of-pricing-power-and-capital/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-21-ai-is-becoming-a-test-of-pricing-power-and-capital/ If Nvidia raises GB200 and GB300 prices by as much as 20% to 30% to offset rising memory costs, will customers absorb the increase, or start looking harder at... Fri, 21 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-20-ai-demand-is-real-the-financing-question-is-harder/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-20-ai-demand-is-real-the-financing-question-is-harder/ If AI demand is so effortless, why is Broadcom reportedly exploring a financing package approaching $100 billion to turn chip demand into deployed capacity? Thu, 20 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-19-the-38gw-bottleneck-when-capital-becomes-an-ai-moat/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-19-the-38gw-bottleneck-when-capital-becomes-an-ai-moat/ If US data centers need around 68GW of power between 2026 and 2028, and roughly 38GW is still missing, what is the most valuable AI asset now: the chip, or the... Wed, 19 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-18-when-ai-demand-moves-onto-the-balance-sheet/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-18-when-ai-demand-moves-onto-the-balance-sheet/ Nvidia has reportedly agreed to provide up to $105 billion in credit support for the land, power, and physical buildings supporting OpenAI's planned computing... Tue, 18 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-17-six-year-old-gpus-and-the-new-test-for-ai-investing/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-17-six-year-old-gpus-and-the-new-test-for-ai-investing/ Why are Nvidia A100 GPUs that are already six years old reportedly contracted through 2029? Mon, 17 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-16-broadcoms-real-ai-problem-is-scarcity-not-displacement/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-16-broadcoms-real-ai-problem-is-scarcity-not-displacement/ Broadcom fell about 6% while AMD rose about 6% on a displacement story the available evidence does not establish. Sun, 16 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-15-record-profits-and-the-concentrated-ai-network-behind-them/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-15-record-profits-and-the-concentrated-ai-network-behind-them/ The S&P 500’s 29% earnings surprise falls to 11% without Google and Amazon. Much of their contribution came from unrealized investment markups, giving record... Sat, 15 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-14-ai-compute-is-becoming-a-contracted-asset-class/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-14-ai-compute-is-becoming-a-contracted-asset-class/ SanDisk has reportedly executed approximately $94 billion in long-term NAND memory supply contracts featuring guaranteed floor pricing. This raises a... Fri, 14 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-13-scale-is-valuable-only-when-capital-earns-its-keep/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-13-scale-is-valuable-only-when-capital-earns-its-keep/ Netflix expanded its EBIT margin by approximately 10.5 percentage points while increasing cash content spending only 2% annually. That is what valuable scale... Thu, 13 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-12-ai-compute-is-being-repriced-around-scarcity/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-12-ai-compute-is-being-repriced-around-scarcity/ Why would an enterprise customer execute a binding multi-year contract extending through 2029 for an Nvidia GPU architecture originally released in 2020? Wed, 12 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-11-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-balance-sheet-still-decides-who/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-11-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-balance-sheet-still-decides-who/ CoreWeave has approximately $104 billion in backlog and doubled revenue, yet its net loss widened to $626 million. What is an AI customer worth when growth... Tue, 11 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-10-ai-compute-is-becoming-an-asset-class-and-memory-is-taking/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-10-ai-compute-is-becoming-an-asset-class-and-memory-is-taking/ Nvidia wants to mobilize more than $500 billion of third-party capital around hardware it calls an “investable asset class.” But a transferable GPU is not... Mon, 10 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-09-passive-investing-solves-for-effort-not-valuation/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-09-passive-investing-solves-for-effort-not-valuation/ The S&P 500 has multiplied roughly 11 times over the past 15 to 16 years, transforming passive indexing from an investment strategy into accepted market... Sun, 09 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-08-ai-demand-is-becoming-a-national-infrastructure-bet/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-08-ai-demand-is-becoming-a-national-infrastructure-bet/ Firebird plans to deploy 250 MW of NVIDIA AI infrastructure in Armenia and Kazakhstan over the next 12 months. That validates expanding demand for compute. It... Sat, 08 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-07-ai-is-expanding-the-market-but-narrowing-the-margin-for/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-07-ai-is-expanding-the-market-but-narrowing-the-margin-for/ What must go right for SpaceX to turn essentially no AI compute revenue into $235 billion of annualized revenue within eight quarters? Fri, 07 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-06-the-ai-boom-now-has-to-prove-its-economics/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-06-the-ai-boom-now-has-to-prove-its-economics/ How can an AI portfolio remain up approximately 80% for the year and still suffer a forced sale? Thu, 06 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-05-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-price-of-success-is-rising/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-05-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-price-of-success-is-rising/ Western Digital beat every cited operating expectation, and its stock still fell about 12%. Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-04-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-economics-are-uneven/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-04-ai-demand-is-real-but-the-economics-are-uneven/ Palantir grew revenue 93% while generating a 63% adjusted free cash flow margin. At least one company is converting AI demand into realized economics today. Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-03-ai-s-growth-story-is-becoming-a-returns-story/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-03-ai-s-growth-story-is-becoming-a-returns-story/ Microsoft's intelligent cloud grew 32%, while its property, plant and equipment rose from $109 billion to $313 billion. Which number matters more to... Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-02-cheap-multiples-expensive-assumptions/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-02-cheap-multiples-expensive-assumptions/ What does Samsung's 3.2x forward PE 2027 actually mean if the forecast behind it requires roughly $1.25 trillion in operating profit over three years? Sun, 02 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-01-the-index-looks-calm-but-the-crowded-trades-do-not/ https://www.techvalueinvestor.com/blog/2026-08-01-the-index-looks-calm-but-the-crowded-trades-do-not/ How can the S&P 500 fall less than 1% while semiconductors lose 20% and a leveraged hedge fund reportedly loses 67%? Sat, 01 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0000